Genomics Research of Lifetime Depression in the Netherlands: The BIObanks Netherlands Internet Collaboration (BIONIC) Project.

In this cohort profile article we describe the lifetime major depressive disorder (MDD) database that has been established as part of the BIObanks Netherlands Internet Collaboration (BIONIC). Across the Netherlands we collected data on Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition (DSM-5) lifetime MDD diagnosis in 132,850 Dutch individuals. Currently, N = 66,684 of these also have genomewide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data. We initiated this project because the complex genetic basis of MDD requires large population-wide studies with uniform in-depth phenotyping. For standardized phenotyping we developed the LIDAS (LIfetime Depression Assessment Survey), which then was used to measure MDD in 11 Dutch cohorts. Data from these cohorts were combined with diagnostic interview depression data from 5 clinical cohorts to create a dataset of N = 29,650 lifetime MDD cases (22%) meeting DSM-5 criteria and 94,300 screened controls. In addition, genomewide genotype data from the cohorts were assembled into a genomewide association study (GWAS) dataset of N = 66,684 Dutch individuals (25.3% cases). Phenotype data include DSM-5-based MDD diagnoses, sociodemographic variables, information on lifestyle and BMI, characteristics of depressive symptoms and episodes, and psychiatric diagnosis and treatment history. We describe the establishment and harmonization of the BIONIC phenotype and GWAS datasets and provide an overview of the available information and sample characteristics. Our next step is the GWAS of lifetime MDD in the Netherlands, with future plans including fine-grained genetic analyses of depression characteristics, international collaborations and multi-omics studies.

Using parent-offspring pairs and trios to estimate indirect genetic effects in education.

We investigated indirect genetic effects (IGEs), also known as genetic nurture, in education with a novel approach that uses phased data to include parent-offspring pairs in the transmitted/nontransmitted study design. This method increases the power to detect IGEs, enhances the generalizability of the findings, and allows for the study of effects by parent-of-origin. We validated and applied this method in a family-based subsample of adolescents and adults from the Lifelines Cohort Study in the Netherlands (N = 6147), using the latest genome-wide association study data on educational attainment to construct polygenic scores (PGS). Our results indicated that IGEs play a role in education outcomes in the Netherlands: we found significant associations of the nontransmitted PGS with secondary school level in youth between 13 and 24 years old as well as with education attainment and years of education in adults over 25 years old (ß = 0.14, 0.17 and 0.26, respectively), with tentative evidence for larger maternal IGEs. In conclusion, we replicated previous findings and showed that including parent-offspring pairs in addition to trios in the transmitted/nontransmitted design can benefit future studies of parental IGEs in a wide range of outcomes.

Clinical characteristics indexing genetic differences in bipolar disorder - a systematic review.

Bipolar disorder is a heterogenous condition with a varied clinical presentation. While progress has been made in identifying genetic variants associated with bipolar disorder, most common genetic variants have not yet been identified. More detailed phenotyping (beyond diagnosis) may increase the chance of finding genetic variants. Our aim therefore was to identify clinical characteristics that index genetic differences in bipolar disorder.We performed a systematic review of all genome-wide molecular genetic, family, and twin studies investigating familial/genetic influences on the clinical characteristics of bipolar disorder. We performed an electronic database search of PubMed and PsycInfo until October 2022. We reviewed title/abstracts of 2693 unique records and full texts of 391 reports, identifying 445 relevant analyses from 142 different reports. These reports described 199 analyses from family studies, 183 analyses from molecular genetic studies and 63 analyses from other types of studies. We summarized the overall evidence per phenotype considering study quality, power, and number of studies.We found moderate to strong evidence for a positive association of age at onset, subtype (bipolar I versus bipolar II), psychotic symptoms and manic symptoms with familial/genetic risk of bipolar disorder. Sex was not associated with overall genetic risk but could indicate qualitative genetic differences. Assessment of genetically relevant clinical characteristics of patients with bipolar disorder can be used to increase the phenotypic and genetic homogeneity of the sample in future genetic studies, which may yield more power, increase specificity, and improve understanding of the genetic architecture of bipolar disorder.

Testing the mood brightening hypothesis: Hedonic benefits of physical, outdoor, and social activities in people with anxiety, depression or both.

BACKGROUND: The mood brightening hypothesis postulates that people with depressive symptoms report more positive affect (PA) and less negative affect (NA) than healthy controls after rewarding daily life activities. Whether mood brightening also occurs in people with anxiety symptoms remains unclear. This study examined effects of physical activity, being outdoors, and social activity on PA and NA across different levels of depression and anxiety symptoms in the general Dutch population. METHODS: Participants completed an electronic diary on their smartphone, thrice daily over 30 days, to assess activities and affect (n = 430; 22,086 assessments). We compared five groups based on their scores on the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scales: asymptomatic participants, participants with mild symptoms of depression and/or anxiety, depression symptoms, anxiety symptoms, and comorbid depression and anxiety symptoms. Multilevel linear regression models with interaction terms were used to compare the association between activities and affect in these five groups. RESULTS: All activities were associated with increased PA and reduced NA in all groups. We found a mood brightening effect in participants with depression, as physical activity and being outdoors were associated with reduced NA. Participants with depression had increased PA and reduced NA when in social company compared to asymptomatic participants. No mood brightening effects were observed in participants with anxiety or comorbid depression and anxiety. LIMITATIONS: Our sample included mainly women and highly educated subjects, which may limit the generalizability of our findings. CONCLUSION: Mood brightening is specific to depression, and typically stronger when in social company.

Longitudinal analyses of depression, anxiety, and suicidal ideation highlight greater prevalence in the northern Dutch population during the COVID-19 lockdowns.

BACKGROUND: The pandemic of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has led to an increased burden on mental health. AIMS: To investigate the development of major depressive disorder (MDD), generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), and suicidal ideation in the Netherlands during the first fifteen months of the pandemic and three nation-wide lockdowns. METHOD: Participants of the Lifelines Cohort Study -a Dutch population-based sample-reported current symptoms of MDD and GAD, including suicidal ideation, according to DSM-IV criteria. Between March 2020 and June 2021, 36,106 participants (aged 18-96) filled out a total of 629,811 questionnaires across 23 time points. Trajectories over time were estimated using generalized additive models and analyzed in relation to age, sex, and lifetime history of MDD/GAD. RESULTS: We found non-linear trajectories for MDD and GAD with a higher number of symptoms and prevalence rates during periods of lockdown. The point prevalence of MDD and GAD peaked during the third hard lockdown at 2.88 % (95 % CI: 2.71 %-3.06 %) and 2.92 % (95 % CI: 2.76 %-3.08 %), respectively, in March 2021. Women, younger adults, and participants with a history of MDD/GAD reported significantly more symptoms. For suicidal ideation, we found a significant linear increase over time in younger participants. For example, 20-year-old participants reported 4.14× more suicidal ideation at the end of June 2021 compared to the start of the pandemic (4.64 % (CI: 3.09 %-6.96 %) versus 1.12 % (CI: 0.76 %-1.66 %)). LIMITATIONS: Our findings should be interpreted in relation to the societal context of the Netherlands and the public health response of the Dutch government during the pandemic, which may be different in other regions in the world. CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed greater prevalence of MDD and GAD during COVID-19 lockdowns and a continuing increase in suicidal thoughts among young adults suggesting that the pandemic and government enacted restrictions impacted mental health in the population. Our findings provide actionable insights on mental health in the population during the pandemic, which can guide policy makers and clinical care during future lockdowns and epi/pandemics.

Clinical characteristics indexing genetic differences in schizophrenia: a systematic review.

Genome-wide studies are among the best available tools for identifying etiologic processes underlying psychiatric disorders such as schizophrenia. However, it is widely recognized that disorder heterogeneity may limit genetic insights. Identifying phenotypes indexing genetic differences among patients with non-affective psychotic disorder will improve genome-wide studies of these disorders. The present study systematically reviews existing literature to identify phenotypes that index genetic differences among patients with schizophrenia and related disorders. We systematically reviewed family-based studies and genome-wide molecular-genetic studies investigating whether phenotypic variation in patients with non-affective psychotic disorders (according to DSM or equivalent systems) was associated with genome-wide genetic variation (PROSPERO number CRD42019136169). An electronic database search of PubMed, EMBASE, and PsycINFO from inception until 17 May 2019 resulted in 4347 published records. These records included a total of 813 relevant analyses from 264 articles. Two independent raters assessed the quality of all analyses based on methodologic rigor and power. We found moderate to strong evidence for a positive association between genetic/familial risk for non-affective psychosis and four phenotypes: early age of onset, negative/deficit symptoms, chronicity, and functional impairment. Female patients also tended to have more affected relatives. Severity of positive symptoms was not associated with genetic/familial risk for schizophrenia. We suggest that phenotypes with the most evidence for reflecting genetic difference in participating patients should be measured in future large-scale genetic studies of schizophrenia to improve power to discover causal variants and to facilitate discovery of modifying genetic variants.

Sociodemographic, lifestyle and clinical characteristics of energy-related depression symptoms: A pooled analysis of 13,965 depressed cases in 8 Dutch cohorts.

BACKGROUND: In a substantial subgroup of depressed patients, atypical, energy-related depression symptoms (e.g. increased appetite/weight, hypersomnia, loss of energy) tend to cluster with immuno-metabolic dysregulations (e.g. increased BMI and inflammatory markers). This clustering is proposed to reflect a more homogeneous depression pathology. This study examines to what extent energy-related symptoms are associated and share sociodemographic, lifestyle and clinical characteristics. METHODS: Data were available from 13,965 participants from eight Dutch cohorts with DSM-5 lifetime major depression assessed by the Lifetime Depression Assessment Self-report (LIDAS) questionnaire. Information on four energy-related depression symptoms were extracted: energy loss, increased appetite, increased weight, and hypersomnia. Tetrachoric correlations between these symptoms, and associations of these symptoms with sociodemographic (sex, age, education), lifestyle (physical activity, BMI, smoking) and clinical characteristics (age of onset, episode duration, history, treatment and recency, and self-reported comorbidity) were computed. RESULTS: Correlations between energy-related symptoms were overall higher than those with other depression symptoms and varied from 0.90 (increased appetite vs increased weight) to 0.11 (increased appetite vs energy loss). All energy-related symptoms were strongly associated with higher BMI and a more severe clinical profile. Patients with increased appetite were more often smokers, and only patients with increased appetite or weight more often had a self-reported diagnosis of PTSD (OR = 1.17, p = 2.91E-08) and eating disorder (OR = 1.40, p = 4.08E-17). CONCLUSIONS: The symptom-specific associations may have consequences for a profile integrating these symptoms, which can be used to reflect immuno-metabolic depression. They indicate the need to study immuno-metabolic depression at individual symptom resolution as a starting point.

Prevalence of internalizing disorders, symptoms, and traits across age using advanced nonlinear models.

BACKGROUND: Most epidemiological studies show a decrease of internalizing disorders at older ages, but it is unclear how the prevalence exactly changes with age, and whether there are different patterns for internalizing symptoms and traits, and for men and women. This study investigates the impact of age and sex on the point prevalence across different mood and anxiety disorders, internalizing symptoms, and neuroticism. METHODS: We used cross-sectional data on 146 315 subjects, aged 18-80 years, from the Lifelines Cohort Study, a Dutch general population sample. Between 2012 and 2016, five current internalizing disorders - major depression, dysthymia, generalized anxiety disorder, social phobia, and panic disorder - were assessed according to DSM-IV criteria. Depressive symptoms, anxiety symptoms, neuroticism, and negative affect (NA) were also measured. Generalized additive models were used to identify nonlinear patterns across age, and to investigate sex differences. RESULTS: The point prevalence of internalizing disorders generally increased between the ages of 18 and 30 years, stabilized between 30 and 50, and decreased after age 50. The patterns of internalizing symptoms and traits were different. NA and neuroticism gradually decreased after age 18. Women reported more internalizing disorders than men, but the relative difference remained stable across age (relative risk ~1.7). CONCLUSIONS: The point prevalence of internalizing disorders was typically highest between age 30 and 50, but there were differences between the disorders, which could indicate differences in etiology. The relative gap between the sexes remained similar across age, suggesting that changes in sex hormones around the menopause do not significantly influence women's risk of internalizing disorders.

Loneliness associates strongly with anxiety and depression during the COVID pandemic, especially in men and younger adults.

Loneliness is associated with major depressive disorder (MDD), and likely also with generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). It is unclear if these associations are moderated by age, sex, or genetic susceptibility for MDD. We included 75,279 individuals from the Lifelines COVID-19 study, a longitudinal study of a Dutch population-based cohort. Participants completed up to sixteen digital questionnaires between March 2020 and January 2021, yielding a total of 616,129 observations. Loneliness was assessed with the Three-Item Loneliness Scale, and MDD and GAD with the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview. We used generalized estimating equations to investigate the association between loneliness and MDD and GAD, and whether this association varied across time, age, sex and MDD polygenic risk. Loneliness was strongly associated with all MDD and GAD outcomes. Individuals with the highest loneliness scores were around 14 times more likely to have MDD, and 11 times more likely to have GAD, compared to individuals who reported the least loneliness. The association between loneliness and MDD symptoms was stronger in men, younger individuals, and increased across time. While MDD polygenic risk predicted MDD and GAD outcomes, we did not find an interaction effect with loneliness. Our study, which is the largest to date, confirms that loneliness is an important risk factor for MDD, GAD, depressive and anxiety symptoms, especially in men and younger individuals. Future studies should investigate the mechanisms of these associations and explore loneliness-based interventions to prevent and treat MDD and GAD.

The structure of the symptoms of major depression: Factor analysis of a lifetime worst episode of depressive symptoms in a large general population sample.

BACKGROUND: A range of depressive symptoms may occur during an episode of major depression (MD). Do these symptoms describe a single disorder liability or different symptom dimensions? This study investigates the structure and clinical relevance of an expanded set of depressive symptoms in a large general population sample. METHODS: We studied 43,431 subjects from the Dutch Lifelines Cohort Study who participated in an online survey assessing the 9 symptom criteria of MD (DSM-IV-TR) and additional depressive symptoms during their worst lifetime episode of depressive symptoms lasting two weeks or more. Exploratory factor analyses were performed on expanded sets of 9, 14, and 24 depressive symptoms. The clinical relevance of the identified symptom dimensions was analyzed in confirmatory factor analyses including ten external validators. RESULTS: A single dimension adequately accounted for the covariation among the 9 DSM-criteria, but multiple dimensions were needed to describe the 14 and 24 depressive symptoms. Five dimensions described the structure underlying the 24 depressive symptoms. Three cognitive affective symptom dimensions were mainly associated with risk factors for MD. Two somatic dimensions -appetite/weight problems and sleep problems-were mainly associated with BMI and age, respectively. LIMITATIONS: Respondents of our online survey tended to be more often female, older, and more highly educated than non-respondents. CONCLUSIONS: Different symptom dimensions described the structure of depressive symptoms during a lifetime worst episode in a general population sample. These symptom dimensions resembled those reported in a large clinical sample of Han-Chinese women with recurrent MD, suggesting robustness of the syndrome of MD.

Intermediate stable states in substance use.

Many people across the world use potentially addictive legal and illegal substances, but evidence suggests that not all use leads to heavy use and dependence, as some substances are used moderately for long periods of time. Here, we empirically examine, the stability of and transitions between three substance use states: zero-use, moderate use, and heavy use. We investigate two large datasets from the US and the Netherlands on yearly usage and change of alcohol, nicotine, and cannabis. Results, which we make available through an extensive interactive tool, suggests that there are stable moderate use states, even after meeting criteria for a positive diagnosis of substance abuse or dependency, for both alcohol and cannabis use. Moderate use of tobacco, however, was rare. We discuss implications of recognizing three states rather than two states as a modeling target, in which the moderate use state can both act as an intervention target or as a gateway between zero use and heavy use.

Investigating data-driven biological subtypes of psychiatric disorders using specification-curve analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cluster analyses have become popular tools for data-driven classification in biological psychiatric research. However, these analyses are known to be sensitive to the chosen methods and/or modelling options, which may hamper generalizability and replicability of findings. To gain more insight into this problem, we used Specification-Curve Analysis (SCA) to investigate the influence of methodological variation on biomarker-based cluster-analysis results. METHODS: Proteomics data (31 biomarkers) were used from patients (n = 688) and healthy controls (n = 426) in the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety. In SCAs, consistency of results was evaluated across 1200 k-means and hierarchical clustering analyses, each with a unique combination of the clustering algorithm, fit-index, and distance metric. Next, SCAs were run in simulated datasets with varying cluster numbers and noise/outlier levels to evaluate the effect of data properties on SCA outcomes. RESULTS: The real data SCA showed no robust patterns of biological clustering in either the MDD or a combined MDD/healthy dataset. The simulation results showed that the correct number of clusters could be identified quite consistently across the 1200 model specifications, but that correct cluster identification became harder when the number of clusters and noise levels increased. CONCLUSION: SCA can provide useful insights into the presence of clusters in biomarker data. However, SCA is likely to show inconsistent results in real-world biomarker datasets that are complex and contain considerable levels of noise. Here, the number and nature of the observed clusters may depend strongly on the chosen model-specification, precluding conclusions about the existence of biological clusters among psychiatric patients.

Symptom networks in major depression do not diverge across sex, familial risk, and environmental risk.

BACKGROUND: Major depression (MD) is a heterogeneous disorder in terms of its symptoms. Symptoms vary by presence of risk factors such as female sex, familial risk, and environmental adversity. However, it is unclear if these factors also influence interactions between symptoms. This study investigates if symptom networks diverge across sex, familial risk, and adversity. METHODS: We included 9713 subjects from the general population who reported a lifetime episode of MD based on DSM-IV criteria. The survey assessed a wide set of symptoms, both from within the DSM criteria as well as other symptoms commonly experienced in MD. We compared symptom endorsement rates across sex, age at onset, family history and environmental adversity. We used the Network Comparison Test to test for symptom network differences across risk factors. RESULTS: We found differences in symptom endorsement between groups. For instance, participants with an early onset of MD reported suicidal ideation nearly twice as often compared to participants with a later onset. We did not find any robust differences in symptom networks, which suggests that symptom networks do not diverge across sex, familial risk, and adversity. LIMITATIONS: We estimated symptom networks of individuals during their worst lifetime episode of MD. Network differences might exist in a prodromal stage, while disappearing in full-blown MD (equifinality). Furthermore, as we used retrospective reports, results could be prone to recall bias. CONCLUSIONS: Despite MD's heterogeneous symptomatology, interactions between symptoms are stable across risk factors and sex.

Data mining algorithm predicts a range of adverse outcomes in major depression.

BACKGROUND: Course of illness in major depression (MD) is highly varied, which might lead to both under- and overtreatment if clinicians adhere to a 'one-size-fits-all' approach. Novel opportunities in data mining could lead to prediction models that can assist clinicians in treatment decisions tailored to the individual patient. This study assesses the performance of a previously developed data mining algorithm to predict future episodes of MD based on clinical information in new data. METHODS: We applied a prediction model utilizing baseline clinical characteristics in subjects who reported lifetime MD to two independent test samples (total n = 4226). We assessed the model's performance to predict future episodes of MD, anxiety disorders, and disability during follow-up (1-9 years after baseline). In addition, we compared its prediction performance with well-known risk factors for a severe course of illness. RESULTS: Our model consistently predicted future episodes of MD in both test samples (AUC 0.68-0.73, modest prediction). Equally accurately, it predicted episodes of generalized anxiety disorder, panic disorder and disability (AUC 0.65-0.78). Our model predicted these outcomes more accurately than risk factors for a severe course of illness such as family history of MD and lifetime traumas. LIMITATIONS: Prediction accuracy might be different for specific subgroups, such as hospitalized patients or patients with a different cultural background. CONCLUSIONS: Our prediction model consistently predicted a range of adverse outcomes in MD across two independent test samples derived from studies in different subpopulations, countries, using different measurement procedures. This replication study holds promise for application in clinical practice.

Measurement and genetic architecture of lifetime depression in the Netherlands as assessed by LIDAS (Lifetime Depression Assessment Self-report).

BACKGROUND: Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a common mood disorder, with a heritability of around 34%. Molecular genetic studies made significant progress and identified genetic markers associated with the risk of MDD; however, progress is slowed down by substantial heterogeneity as MDD is assessed differently across international cohorts. Here, we used a standardized online approach to measure MDD in multiple cohorts in the Netherlands and evaluated whether this approach can be used in epidemiological and genetic association studies of depression. METHODS: Within the Biobank Netherlands Internet Collaboration (BIONIC) project, we collected MDD data in eight cohorts involving 31 936 participants, using the online Lifetime Depression Assessment Self-report (LIDAS), and estimated the prevalence of current and lifetime MDD in 22 623 unrelated individuals. In a large Netherlands Twin Register (NTR) twin-family dataset (n ≈ 18 000), we estimated the heritability of MDD, and the prediction of MDD in a subset (n = 4782) through Polygenic Risk Score (PRS). RESULTS: Estimates of current and lifetime MDD prevalence were 6.7% and 18.1%, respectively, in line with population estimates based on validated psychiatric interviews. In the NTR heritability estimates were 0.34/0.30 (s.e. = 0.02/0.02) for current/lifetime MDD, respectively, showing that the LIDAS gives similar heritability rates for MDD as reported in the literature. The PRS predicted risk of MDD (OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.15-1.32, R2 = 1.47%). CONCLUSIONS: By assessing MDD status in the Netherlands using the LIDAS instrument, we were able to confirm previously reported MDD prevalence and heritability estimates, which suggests that this instrument can be used in epidemiological and genetic association studies of depression.

What's in a model? Network models as tools instead of representations of what psychiatric disorders really are.

Network models block reductionism about psychiatric disorders only if models are interpreted in a realist manner - that is, taken to represent "what psychiatric disorders really are." A flexible and more instrumentalist view of models is needed to improve our understanding of the heterogeneity and multifactorial character of psychiatric disorders.

Data-driven biological subtypes of depression: systematic review of biological approaches to depression subtyping.

Research into major depressive disorder (MDD) is complicated by population heterogeneity, which has motivated the search for more homogeneous subtypes through data-driven computational methods to identify patterns in data. In addition, data on biological differences could play an important role in identifying clinically useful subtypes. This systematic review aimed to summarize evidence for biological subtypes of MDD from data-driven studies. We undertook a systematic literature search of PubMed, PsycINFO, and Embase (December 2018). We included studies that identified (1) data-driven subtypes of MDD based on biological variables, or (2) data-driven subtypes based on clinical features (e.g., symptom patterns) and validated these with biological variables post-hoc. Twenty-nine publications including 24 separate analyses in 20 unique samples were identified, including a total of ~ 4000 subjects. Five out of six biochemical studies indicated that there might be depression subtypes with and without disturbed neurotransmitter levels, and one indicated there might be an inflammatory subtype. Seven symptom-based studies identified subtypes, which were mainly determined by severity and by weight gain vs. loss. Two studies compared subtypes based on medication response. These symptom-based subtypes were associated with differences in biomarker profiles and functional connectivity, but results have not sufficiently been replicated. Four out of five neuroimaging studies found evidence for groups with structural and connectivity differences, but results were inconsistent. The single genetic study found a subtype with a distinct pattern of SNPs, but this subtype has not been replicated in an independent test sample. One study combining all aforementioned types of data discovered a subtypes with different levels of functional connectivity, childhood abuse, and treatment response, but the sample size was small. Although the reviewed work provides many leads for future research, the methodological differences across studies and lack of replication preclude definitive conclusions about the existence of clinically useful and generalizable biological subtypes.

Predicting antidepressant response by monitoring early improvement of individual symptoms of depression: individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Improvement in depression within the first 2 weeks of antidepressant treatment predicts good outcomes, but non-improvers can still respond or remit, whereas improvers often do not.AimsWe aimed to investigate whether early improvement of individual depressive symptoms better predicts response or remission. METHOD: We obtained individual patient data of 30 trials comprising 2184 placebo-treated and 6058 antidepressant-treated participants. Primary outcome was week 6 response; secondary outcomes were week 6 remission and week 12 response and remission. We compared models that only included improvement in total score by week 2 (total improvement model) with models that also included improvement in individual symptoms. RESULTS: For week 6 response, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and negative and positive predictive values of the total improvement model were 0.73, 0.67 and 0.74 compared with 0.77, 0.70 and 0.71 for the item improvement model. Model performance decreased for week 12 outcomes. Of predicted non-responders, 29% actually did respond by week 6 and 43% by week 12, which was decreased from the baseline (overall) probabilities of 51% by week 6 and 69% by week 12. In post hoc analyses with continuous rather than dichotomous early improvement, including individual items did not enhance model performance. CONCLUSIONS: Examining individual symptoms adds little to the predictive ability of early improvement. Additionally, early non-improvement does not rule out response or remission, particularly after 12 rather than 6 weeks. Therefore, our findings suggest that routinely adapting pharmacological treatment because of limited early improvement would often be premature.Declaration of interestNone.

Sex similarities and differences in risk factors for recurrence of major depression.

BACKGROUND: Major depression (MD) occurs about twice as often in women as in men, but it is unclear whether sex differences subsist after disease onset. This study aims to elucidate potential sex differences in rates and risk factors for MD recurrence, in order to improve prediction of course of illness and understanding of its underlying mechanisms. METHODS: We used prospective data from a general population sample (n = 653) that experienced a recent episode of MD. A diverse set of potential risk factors for recurrence of MD was analyzed using Cox models subject to elastic net regularization for males and females separately. Accuracy of the prediction models was tested in same-sex and opposite-sex test data. Additionally, interactions between sex and each of the risk factors were investigated to identify potential sex differences. RESULTS: Recurrence rates and the impact of most risk factors were similar for men and women. For both sexes, prediction models were highly multifactorial including risk factors such as comorbid anxiety, early traumas, and family history. Some subtle sex differences were detected: for men, prediction models included more risk factors concerning characteristics of the depressive episode and family history of MD and generalized anxiety, whereas for women, models included more risk factors concerning early and recent adverse life events and socioeconomic problems. CONCLUSIONS: No prominent sex differences in risk factors for recurrence of MD were found, potentially indicating similar disease maintaining mechanisms for both sexes. Course of MD is a multifactorial phenomenon for both males and females.